Memory Biases

Declinism

Definition

Declinism is the persistent belief that society, culture, or the world is in general decline – that 'everything was better before.' The conviction holds up regardless of what objective data show about health, life expectancy, poverty, education, or crime.

Real-world example

In repeated surveys (Gallup, Ipsos, Eurobarometer) a large majority in rich countries answer that 'crime is rising,' 'global poverty is greater than before,' and 'young people are lazier than earlier generations.' Objective numbers consistently show the opposite: Extreme poverty has halved since 1990, child mortality is lower, crime in most Western countries has fallen sharply since the 1990s, and education levels are rising.

Hans Rosling documented the gap between perception and data thoroughly in Factfulness (2018). Steven Pinker (Enlightenment Now, 2018) shows the same pattern over longer horizons. Declinism is robust because it combines rosy retrospection (the past was better than it was), negativity bias (bad news dominates media), and the availability heuristic (frightening events are more memorable).

Supplementary perspective

Declinism has practical consequences: Political acceptance of 'drastic change' is fed by the belief that things are going wrong anyway. Willingness to invest in education, climate, and public health is dampened by 'it won't help anyway.' The antidote isn't naive optimism but data literacy – the ability to distinguish personal impressions from systematic measurements over time.

Practical advice

Recognize

—Notice if you say 'everything's going to hell' without checking data on the topic.
—Check whether claims of 'decline' rest on media anecdotes rather than statistics.
—Notice if you only notice certain kinds of decline (rising crime) but not others (rising life expectancy).

Counteract

—Use public statistics (WHO, World Bank, OWID, national bureaus) for long-term trends.
—Distinguish short-term fluctuations from long trend lines.
—Test specific claims against data before generalizing to 'everything is going wrong.'

Ethical use

—In political debate: Demand data for claims about societal trends.
—In journalism: Balance dramatic single events with trend context.
—In education: Train data literacy early, especially about global trends.