Projection Bias
🇳🇴ProjeksjonsbiasDefinition
Projection bias is the tendency to project our current emotional state, preferences, and desires onto our future selves and onto other people – assuming that how we feel right now is how we will feel later, and how others feel too. We understand intellectually that feelings change, but we systematically underestimate how much they will change. The result is decisions made for a future self whose tastes, needs, and circumstances will differ from what we imagine today.
Real-world example
The most relatable example: grocery shopping while hungry. Studies show that hungry shoppers buy significantly more food – and more calorie-dense food – than they will actually want once satiated. The hungry self cannot fully imagine the preferences of the well-fed self.
In career decisions, projection bias leads people to choose jobs based on current excitement rather than long-term satisfaction. A new graduate thrilled by a high-energy startup may not anticipate that in five years, they will value stability, work-life balance, and predictable income more than adrenaline.
In product design, developers often build features they themselves would use, projecting their own preferences onto a user base with very different needs, technical skills, and contexts. This is why user research consistently uncovers surprises – real users rarely think like their designers.
In relationships, people at the height of romantic passion make long-term commitments assuming the intensity will persist, then feel disillusioned when the relationship naturally evolves into something calmer – not because the relationship failed, but because projection bias created unrealistic expectations.
Supplementary perspective
Projection bias was formalized by economists George Loewenstein, Ted O'Donoghue, and Matthew Rabin. Their model shows that people partially adjust for future changes in taste but consistently under-adjust – we are not entirely blind to change, but we underestimate its magnitude. The bias connects to the empathy gap (inability to predict how different emotional states change decisions), the end-of-history illusion (believing we have finished changing as people), and present bias (overweighting current experience). Projection bias has significant implications for policy: people's current-state-dependent decisions about insurance, savings, housing, and healthcare may not serve their future interests well.
Practical advice
Recognize
- —Before making a future-oriented decision, ask: 'Am I imagining my future self with today's feelings, or am I genuinely considering how I might feel differently?'
- —Notice when you assume others share your preferences – especially in negotiations, management, or design work.
- —Watch for decisions made in extreme emotional states (excitement, anger, sadness, hunger) that lock in long-term commitments.
Counteract
- —Apply the 'cooling off' rule: delay important decisions until your emotional state has shifted at least once.
- —Consult your past self: review how your preferences have changed over the last 5 years to calibrate expectations for the next 5.
- —Seek input from people in different life stages or circumstances – their perspectives reveal the projections you cannot see.
- —Build flexibility into long-term commitments: choose options that allow future adjustment rather than those that lock you in.
Ethical use
- —Design products, policies, and contracts that accommodate changing preferences rather than exploiting momentary desires.
- —In management, avoid assuming your team shares your motivations – ask rather than project.
- —When advising others, help them consider multiple future scenarios rather than anchoring on their current emotional state.